Sizing Real Estate Secondaries Transaction Volume

Using an AI-enhanced proprietary process to estimate the true size of the real estate secondaries market, CBRE Investment Management (CBRE IM) has identified that roughly US$24.3 billion worth of global real estate secondaries transactions closed in 2024, a c. 3.8% increase from our estimate of US$23.4 billion in secondaries transactions closed in 2023. Our current projections for 2025 point to further growth.

We are keen to increase transparency around this fast-growing and important part of the real estate market. In this article, we explain how and why:

1. We expanded the definition of real estate secondaries to include similar, but differently labelled, transactions

The revised definition reflects the evolution of the real estate secondaries market, as general partners increasingly leverage this market for business and enterprise planning, further driving the market’s expansion.

2. Our proprietary deal logs may include data and insights not available in the broader market

All CBRE IM teams centrally track secondaries opportunities globally, providing visibility into transactions that are often not publicly reported.

3. AI is enhancing our process for estimating the number of secondaries transactions

Our AI-driven system scrapes global news, filings, and public disclosures to identify and classify secondaries transactions in real time. Using natural language processing and machine learning, it distinguishes deal types and structures—delivering broader coverage, faster insights, and a scalable solution as the market evolves.

4. A more accurate picture of the real estate secondaries market benefits investors

Traditional data capture methods for secondaries transactions already lag the structural evolution of the market and are becoming increasingly fragmented. The following analysis outlines the size, characteristics, and trends of the real estate secondaries market—highlighting a growing opportunity for investors and introducing an expanded toolkit for sponsors and investors to manage private market real estate exposures.

Start with a broader scope

Our AI-enhanced process builds on CBRE IM’s expanded definition of secondaries transactions—capturing a wider spectrum of activity that reflects how the market is actually operating today. This approach gives investors a more complete view of the opportunity set and sharper tools to navigate and capitalize on the evolving real estate secondaries landscape.

• General partner (GP)-led direct secondaries and recapitalizations allow operating partners to retain management of high-quality assets while refreshing capital structures. As investment lifecycles evolve and capital availability for go-forward investment is limited, these transactions are enabling operators to hold desirable assets and/or portfolios that previously changed hands every five to ten years. In 2024, GP-led secondaries accounted for 65% of total market activity (US$15.8b) (Figure 1), making them the fastest-growing segment—driven by rising liquidity needs and investor demand for targeted exposure. Importantly, the definition of GP-led secondaries has expanded beyond the traditional fund continuation vehicle, allowing sophisticated investors to cherrypick preferred assets/portfolios and negotiate for favorable governance and economic packages with operating partners.
• Traditional limited partner (LP)-led secondaries In a capital-constrained environment—where investors have faced limited distributions since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic and through four years of market dislocation—traditional LP-led secondaries have played a vital role. These transactions, which may involve interests in existing funds or joint ventures, or operator-led processes at the end of a vehicle’s life, accounted for approximately 32% of total secondaries volume in 2024, representing US$7.7 billion. LP-led secondaries continue to offer investors a path to rebalance portfolios and access liquidity in an otherwise illiquid market.
• Controlled equity/debt transactions refer to transactions with secondary-like attributes that may arise due to capital markets distress and other liquidity pressures, typically resulting in a discounted entry point. These transactions accounted for 3% of the market (US$0.9b).
• Controlled equity/debt transactions refer to transactions with secondary-like attributes that may arise due to capital markets distress and other liquidity pressures, typically resulting in a discounted entry point. These transactions accounted for 3% of the market (US$0.9b).

Figure 1: 2024 Secondary Transaction by Type

Build an enhanced process

Secondary transactions remain relatively opaque, shaped by traditional practices that preserve information asymmetries between participants. Our broadened data capture methodology addresses this by aggregating previously unrecognized transaction activity—bringing greater transparency to this evolving and increasingly critical segment of the real estate market.

Accurately sizing the market requires a blend of proprietary, real-time local intelligence across global markets, the ability to track off-market activity, and advanced technology. CBRE IM’s approach combines a proprietary deal log with customized, AI-driven transaction data capture. Our AI system scrapes public disclosures and news sources, using natural language processing to identify structures and classify transactions—enabling scalable, real-time insights as the market continues to evolve.

Proprietary deal log

CBRE IM maintains a proprietary deal log that tracks secondary opportunities sourced from across our global platform—including relationships with GPs, LPs, operators, and advisors. As the largest indirect real estate manager globally, with $44.8B in AUM and a network of over 120 local specialist operators, we benefit from broad visibility into both marketed and off-market transactions.

With more than 110 investment professionals across 30+ offices, our teams leverage long-standing relationships to surface opportunities early. The resulting data provides secondary-specific insights that are typically unavailable through external sources, offering a more complete picture of market activity.

Customized AI-driven transaction capture

CBRE IM has developed a proprietary AI system to identify and classify secondaries transactions in real time. By scraping global news sources, regulatory filings, and public disclosures, the system captures deal activity aligned with our expanded definition of secondaries. It uses pre-trained keywords, fund names, and transaction patterns to detect relevant content, then extracts key data points such as transaction pricing, ownership percentage, entity names/counterparties, and asset type and location. As utilization of real estate secondaries continues to increase, we expect more transactions to be reported, further expanding the data set available to be captured by this system.

This process is continuously refined through human review by the Indirect investment and research teams, improving accuracy and reducing false positives. With approximately 70% classification accuracy to date, the system is scalable and adaptable—positioning us to monitor a fragmented market with greater precision and speed than traditional methods.

Benefits for investors

As the secondary market and related investing strategies mature, traditional data capture methods – which already lag market structure evolutions – will become increasingly less reliable measurements of market size, underscoring how essential it is to adopt modern data capture methods.

A more accurate market size assessment reveals an exponentially growing opportunity for investors and demonstrates the increased institutionalization of the real estate secondaries market. Our enhanced process captures valuable, granular data that helps investors identify specific opportunities and trends across market segments and regions. Indeed, our detailed analysis of real estate secondaries transactions in 2024 showcases significant regional diversity and sector-specific trends.

Detailed analysis of 2024 secondaries highlights breadth, growth and resilience

The breadth and diversity of secondaries transactions in 2024 reflect their increasing usage. North America led market activity, driven by relatively strong deal flows and mature opportunities in the U.S. Continental Europe and the U.K. followed closely, buoyed by increasing demand for secondary transactions amid economic recovery and regulatory changes that facilitated greater market fluidity (Figure 2). Although the volumes are currently smaller in Asia-Pacific regions, they are growing rapidly and interest is increasing, particularly in urban centers with high demand for commercial and residential properties.

Figure 2: 2024 Secondary Transactions by Region

From a sector perspective, multifamily and industrial sectors were the most active in secondary transactions, reflecting the exceptional growth and resilience of these two sectors (Figure 3). This trend is similar to the overall commercial real estate market. The shopping center sector was also active, particularly in prime locations with strong rent growth. Office volume was notable as tenants sought modern and flexible working environments. Other sectors, such as student housing and life science, were increasingly adapting to dynamic market conditions and more deals emerged in the secondary market. Overall, sector allocations have remained broadly in line with 2023 transactions. Secondary transactions in 2024 underscored the market's resilience and adaptability, with a diverse range of regions and property types contributing to a vibrant and evolving market landscape.

Figure 3: Top Ten Sectors for Secondary Transactions in 2024

In short, we believe that:

Our analysis of the scale of the market highlights the critical role real estate secondaries are playing as a way to execute real estate transactions for both the buy-side and sell-side investors. With fewer primary market sales of prized assets, secondaries have allowed investors to access high-performing, top-quality assets and capitalize on market dislocations to secure discounted valuations.

As the market matures, it has become increasingly clear that secondaries are no longer a peripheral alternative investment avenue, but a vital component to optimize liquidity, as well as manage preferred allocations and investment strategies. The opportunity in secondary markets has become too big to ignore.