Q2 2023 Macro Outlook
We are not on the verge of a global financial or systemic banking crisis, but anticipate a U.S. recession beginning in Q3 2023.
Downgrades in our macroeconomic forecast center on the U.S. where we are seeing an emerging credit crunch, which will disproportionately impact the U.S. office sector.
While the near-term outlook for Europe is stronger than that for the U.S., Europe has far greater structural headwinds, primarily population growth.
The China reopening “halo effect” remains but is taking some months to reach its full impact.
The new normal globally is one of higher inflation and interest rates.