House View

House View 2023

2023 Macro Outlook

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Long-term structural challenges continue to weigh on the global economy.

Key Highlights:
  • Headline inflation and bond yields fell worldwide, while peak interest rate expectations softened. 
  • We no longer forecast a synchronized global recession.
  • Our recession forecast for the U.S. is downgraded to a technical recession starting in Q4 2023.
  • In Europe, we forecast a modest winter recession followed by a recovery in summer 2023.
  • China’s faster-than-expected reopening will boost global commodity demand and reignite energy inflation in H2 and may help the U.S. avoid recession entirely.
  • In Japan, we expect modestly higher bond yields and inflation to ignite a long-awaited recovery for the deflation-mired economy.
  • We have downgraded our expectations for further rate hikes but do not expect any central bank interest rate cuts until early 2024.

Talking through our Macro Outlook

2023 Macro Outlook

Explore the full macro outlook and examine trends we believe will define the global economy