Q3 2023 Macro Outlook
The macro-economic backdrop for real assets investment looks more encouraging than it did three months ago. The end of the rate tightening cycle is in sight and there is a high probability that the U.S. economy will flirt with but not fall into a recession this winter before experiencing a slow sustained recovery.
The biggest economic news from last quarter revolved around the world’s two largest economies—China and the U.S.
The Chinese economy experienced lackluster performance, belaying our expectations of a strong rebound once the Zero COVID restrictions were lifted.
The U.S. news was better than expected. We are reassured by policymakers’ ability to contain the impact of the handful of bank failures, and protect depositors and credit availability in the wider economy.
There was meaningful debate about whether the U.K. might edge into a recession in the next 18 months. After the U.S., the U.K. is the economy where we see the largest near-term risk.