Q2 2023 Macro Outlook
We are not on the verge of a global financial or systemic banking crisis, but anticipate a U.S. recession beginning in Q3 2023.
Key Highlights:
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Downgrades in our macroeconomic forecast center on the U.S. where we are seeing an emerging credit crunch, which will disproportionately impact the U.S. office sector.
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While the near-term outlook for Europe is stronger than that for the U.S., Europe has far greater structural headwinds, primarily population growth.
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The China reopening “halo effect” remains but is taking some months to reach its full impact.
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The new normal globally is one of higher inflation and interest rates.